Joe's Investo-Blog

http://pragcap.com/those-who-ignore-history

by The Pragmatic Capitalist (pragcap.com)

My position over the last 2 years has been as follows: this is a Main Street debt crisis. I have been highly critical of the government’s incessant interventionist policies over the last few years largely because they ignore the actual problems at hand. First it was Mr. Bernanke saving the banks because he believed the credit crisis started with the banking sector. The great monetarist gaffe ensued. Tim Geithner piled on with the PPIP. FASB jumped on board the bank rescue plan by altering the accounting rules. And then the icing on the cake was the Recovery Act, which, in my opinion, just shoveled money into the hole that had become the output gap, without actually trying to target the real cause of the crisis – those burdened by the debt. In essence, the various bailouts primarily targeted everyone except the people who really needed it.
Read more…

Asset Allocation, Banks, Economics, Financial Crises, Growth Asset Allocation, debt, deleveraging, Economics, economy, EU, fiscal policy, history, strategy, The Administration, US treasury

The Fed is Prepared to Launch Most Radical Intervention in History

By Mike Whitney

www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=20801

August 28, 2010

The equities markets are in disarray while the bond markets continue to surge. The avalanche of bad news has started to take its toll on investor sentiment. Barry Ritholtz’s “The Big Picture” reports that the bears have taken the high-ground and bullishness has dropped to its lowest level since March ‘09 when the market did a quick about-face and began a year-long rally. Could it happen again? No one knows, but the mood has definitely darkened along with the data. There’s no talk of green shoots any more, and even the deficit hawks have gone into hibernation. It feels like the calm before the storm, which is why all eyes were on Jackson Hole this morning where Fed chairman Ben Bernanke delivered his verdict on the state of the economy on Friday.

Wall Street was hoping the Fed would “go big” and promise another hefty dose of quantitative easing to push down long-term interest rates and jolt consumers out of their lethargy. But Bernanke provided few details choosing instead this vague commitment:

“The Committee is prepared to provide additional monetary accommodation through unconventional measures if it proves necessary, especially if the outlook were to deteriorate significantly.”

Check. There’s no doubt that Helicopter Ben would be in mid-flight right now tossing bundles of $100 bills into the jet-stream like confetti if he had the option. But Bernanke is Read more…

Bonds, Currencies, Economics, Financial Crises, Inflation/Deflation Banks, congress, Currencies, debt, deflation, economy, fiscal policy, inflation, liquidity trap, monetary policy, quantitative easing, strategy, The Fed, US treasury

Money Supply Confuses Deflation’s Confused Proponents
By John Tamny

http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2010/07/27/money_supply_confuses_deflations_confused_proponents_98592.html

The great British political economist John Stuart Mill long ago noted that “the whole of goods in the market” composes “the demand for money.” To put it more simply, money is just the measuring rod that facilitates the real exchange of actual goods and labor.

As such, when production and labor increases, so does the supply of money. Conversely, when both decrease the supply of money declines. To make basic what is basic, money supply’s expansion and decline is a function of production.

This is important in light of all the handwringing among deflation’s confused proponents at present, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Daily Telegraph the most notable in this regard. Watching the “Ms” in decline, Evans-Pritchard notes that they did much the same in the 1930s, and naturally suggests we’re headed for a 1930s style Great Depression.

Assuming we are, it can’t be stressed enough that a decline in the monetary aggregates would be and is a symptom of reduced economic activity, not a driver of same as Evans-Pritchard supposes.

Considering deflation itself, the total perversion of its meaning continues to reach staggering heights. That deflation is always and everywhere a symptom of rising currency values doesn’t seem to concern its true believers despite the fact that the world’s currencies are mostly in decline. That Japan’s deflation was a function of the yen tripling in value against gold (the opposite direction of the world’s currencies today) is wholly ignored by a deflation cult convinced that Japan’s sufferance of an overly strong yen mirrors a period of broad currency weakness. That prices fall all the time thanks to productivity enhancements doesn’t concern its religionists either. That there’s little interest in accessing credit during periods of deflation (borrowers aren’t eager to take out loans that will rise in cost) hasn’t shaken the beliefs of an economic sect that mistakes an inflationary lack of credit for deflation.
Read more…

Banks, Currencies, Economics, Inflation/Deflation Asset Allocation, Banks, Currencies, debt, deflation, Economics, exchange rates, fiscal policy, history, inflation, liquidity trap, monetary policy, monetary velocity, quantitative easing, The Fed, US treasury

To My Clients:

Our accounts are up 5.3 % for the Quarter and up 11.2 % for the year 2010 to date.

Even though the broad stock market indexes are all down over 10 % this past quarter, we have been fortunate once again to show positive returns in our accounts with a targeted and conservative approach. Our tech stock, Sandisk, was up over 20%, our gold stocks were up 12% and our long-term treasury bonds were up 10%. The largest portions of our accounts remain invested in cash and short-term treasury securities. Short-term interest rates will remain at historic lows and we expect long-term interest rates to continue to decline even as federal debt surges.

The alleged “recovery” recently has been showing signs of weakness and debt problems continue across the globe leading to volatility and weakness in the stock markets. There is considerable discussion among economists and analysts as to whether we will enter into a double dip recession. We don’t necessarily agree and tend to follow a recent new term to describe the current outlook for the economy which is “muddle through”. Read more…

Asset Allocation, Banks, Bonds, Economics, Gold, Inflation/Deflation, Markets, Portfolio Management Asset Allocation, Bonds, debt, Economics, economy, fiscal policy, liquidity trap, monetary policy, Portfolio Management, stock market, stock picks, Stocks, strategy, The Fed

http://comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=Newsletter.aspx&category=SpecialReport&newsletterid=1534&menugroup=Home&AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1

We understand that we have discussed the debt problem in this country for what seems to be forever, but we can’t stop talking about it now that the debt is clearly the catalyst for the latest stock market downturn. Debt is discussed by the pundits on financial TV also, but in almost every case the discussion revolves around government deficits relative to GDP or government debt relative to GDP. They are constantly comparing the U.S. government debt to every other country in the world (especially Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain-PIIGS). We believe that the government debt should be taking a back seat to the private debt which is much larger and must eventually be deleveraged.
Read more…

Banks, Currencies, Economics, Financial Crises, Inflation/Deflation, uncategorized Banks, Bonds, collapse, debt, deflation, Economics, economy, fiscal policy, history, inflation, liquidity trap, monetary policy, monetary velocity, quantitative easing, The Fed, US treasury

by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/7857595/RBS-tells-clients-to-prepare-for-monster-money-printing-by-the-Federal-Reserve.html

Entitled “Deflation: Making Sure It Doesn’t Happen Here”, it is a warfare manual for defeating economic slumps by use of extreme monetary stimulus once interest rates have dropped to zero, and implicitly once governments have spent themselves to near bankruptcy.

The speech is best known for its irreverent one-liner: “The US government has a technology, called a printing press, that allows it to produce as many US dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.”

Bernanke began putting the script into action after the credit system seized up in 2008, purchasing $1.75 trillion of Treasuries, mortgage securities, and agency bonds to shore up the US credit system. He stopped far short of the $5 trillion balance sheet quietly pencilled in by the Fed Board as the upper limit for quantitative easing (QE).

Investors basking in Wall Street’s V-shaped rally had assumed that this bizarre episode was over. So did the Fed, which has been shutting liquidity spigots one by one. But the latest batch of data is disturbing.
Read more…

Asset Allocation, Economics, Financial Crises, Inflation/Deflation Banks, collapse, debt, Economics, economy, fiscal policy, history, inflation, monetary policy, The Administration, The Fed

By Paul Krugman
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/28/opinion/28krugman.html

Recessions are common; depressions are rare. As far as I can tell, there were only two eras in economic history that were widely described as “depressions” at the time: the years of deflation and instability that followed the Panic of 1873 and the years of mass unemployment that followed the financial crisis of 1929-31.

Neither the Long Depression of the 19th century nor the Great Depression of the 20th was an era of nonstop decline — on the contrary, both included periods when the economy grew. But these episodes of improvement were never enough to undo the damage from the initial slump, and were followed by relapses.

We are now, I fear, in the early stages of a third depression. It will probably look more like the Long Depression than the much more severe Great Depression. But the cost — to the world economy and, above all, to the millions of lives blighted by the absence of jobs — will nonetheless be immense.

And this third depression will be primarily a failure of policy. Around the world — most recently at last weekend’s deeply discouraging G-20 meeting — governments are obsessing about inflation when the real threat is deflation, preaching the need for belt-tightening when the real problem is inadequate spending.
Read more…

Asset Allocation, Economics, Financial Crises, Inflation/Deflation, Markets Banks, collapse, congress, debt, deflation, Economics, economy, EU, fiscal policy, history, IMF, monetary policy, strategy, taxes, The Administration, The Fed

There Is No Such Thing as a Sovereign Budget Deficit.

By Mike Whitney

Deficits create demand. Demand generates spending. Spending generates economic activity. Economic activity generates growth. Growth generates jobs, increases government revenues, reduces deficits and ends recessions.

Simple, right?

When consumers have too much debt, they will not spend no matter how low interest rates are. This is not theory, this is fact.

If the government cuts spending at the same time as consumers, then overall spending declines and the economy slips into recession. This is what the deficit hawks want–a return to recession. This is politics, not economics.

KEYNE’S KOAN: Increasing the deficits, lowers the deficits
Read more…

Economics, Financial Crises, Inflation/Deflation, Politics Asset Allocation, collapse, Currencies, debt, deflation, Economics, EU, exchange rates, fiscal policy, history, IMF, inflation, monetary policy, Politics, Regulators, trade

by James Galbraith
May 12, 2010

source: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/05/galbraith_the_danger_posed_by.html

James Galbraith is an economist and the Lloyd M. Bentsen Jr. chair in government and business relations at the University of Texas at Austin. He’s also a skeptic of the prevailing concern over America’s long-term deficit. With many people now comparing America’s fiscal condition to Greece, I spoke with Galbraith to get the other side of the argument. An edited transcript of our conversation follows.

EK: You think the danger posed by the long-term deficit is overstated by most economists and economic commentators.

JG: No, I think the danger is zero. It’s not overstated. It’s completely misstated.

EK: Why?

JG: What is the nature of the danger? The only possible answer is that this larger deficit would cause a rise in the interest rate. Well, if the markets thought that was a serious risk, the rate on 20-year treasury bonds wouldn’t be 4 percent and change now. If the markets thought that the interest rate would be forced up by funding difficulties 10 year from now, it would show up in the 20-year rate. That rate has actually been coming down in the wake of the European crisis.

So there are two possibilities here. One is the theory is wrong. The other is that the market isn’t rational. And if the market isn’t rational, there’s no point in designing policy to accommodate the markets because you can’t accommodate an irrational entity.
Read more…

Banks, Bonds, Currencies, Economics, Inflation/Deflation Banks, Bonds, congress, Currencies, debt, deflation, Economics, EU, exchange rates, fiscal policy, IMF, inflation, monetary policy, Politics, The Administration, US treasury

The E.U.’s Dangerous Game

By MARK WEISBROT
Published: May 12, 2010

The agreement by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund to provide up to $960 billion of support to the Continent’s weaker economies, as well as to financial markets, has appeared to calm investors worldwide, for the moment.

But this does not resolve the underlying problem, even in the short run.

The problem is one of irrational economic policy. The Greek government has reached an agreement with the E.U. authorities (which include the European Commission and the European Central Bank), and the I.M.F. that will make the current economic problems even worse.

This is known to economists, including the ones at the E.U. and I.M.F. who negotiated the agreement. The projections show that if their program “works,” Greece’s debt will rise from 115 percent of gross domestic product today to 149 percent in 2013. This means that in less than three years, and most likely sooner, Greece will be facing the same crisis that it faces today.
Read more…

Asset Allocation, Bonds, Currencies, Economics, Inflation/Deflation, Politics Bonds, collapse, Currencies, debt, Economics, economy, EU, exchange rates, fiscal policy, IMF, monetary policy, Politics

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aqpASviGyLQc

April 26 (Bloomberg) — The bond vigilantes who punished governments for profligate spending in past years have gone into hiding.

Sovereign bonds yield an average 2.385 percent, about the same as a year ago and below the average of 3.08 percent in 2008 when the credit market seizure led investors to seek the safety of government debt, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data. The cost to borrow is steady even though the amount of bonds in the index that includes nations from the U.S. to Germany and Japan has grown to $17.4 trillion from $13.4 trillion two years ago.

While the debt helped the global economy recover from its first recession since World War II, yields show bond investors aren’t troubled that the growth will spur inflation. Consumer prices excluding food and energy costs rose 1.5 percent in February from a year earlier in the 30 countries that form the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the smallest gain on record.

“The fact that inflation is very well behaved, that provides the cover for central banks to remain on the sidelines and continue to pursue accommodative policies to help the economy,” said Thomas Girard, a senior money manager who helps oversee $115 billion in fixed-income assets with New York Life Investment Management in New York.
Read more…

Asset Allocation, Bonds, Economics, Inflation/Deflation, Markets Asset Allocation, Bonds, collapse, debt, deflation, Economics, economy, fiscal policy, inflation, monetary policy, Politics, Regulators, strategy, The Fed, US treasury

What the Peoples Bank of China Can and Cannot do with its Foreign Currency Reserves

http://mpettis.com/2010/02/what-the-pboc-cannot-do-with-its-reserves/

February 22nd, 2010 by Michael Pettis

China did not reduce its dollar holdings
Beijing is not Washington’s banker
Can PBoC reserves protect China?
Balance sheet mismatches
Are there no winners and losers?
Wealth is transferred within China

It is a real toss-up as to which generates more bizarre comment in the international press: Beijing’s long-feared dumping of US Treasuries, or the use and value of the PBoC’s central bank reserves. The revelation last week that Chinese holdings of US Treasury obligations fell in December by $34.2 billion, to $755.4 billion, generated a frisson of fear and excitement, leading one prominent newspaper to worry that “If there is one thing that gets investors twitchy, it is the fear that China is losing its appetite for US government bonds.”

And shouldn’t they get twitchy? After all this reduction in Chinese holdings of Treasury bonds comes from the USG’s TIC data, so it must be true that China is dumping dollars, right?

No need to twitch, it means no such thing. Read more…

Banks, Bonds, Currencies, Economics, Financial Crises Banks, Bonds, collapse, Currencies, debt, Economics, exchange rates, fiscal policy, inflation, monetary policy, The Administration, The Fed, trade

Recently Sally Hutchins commented on a recent post as follows:

Please continue. So printing more money is creating more debt? Educate me. Love, Sally

Love? Yep. She’s my adorable sister.

Hi Sally:

Let me try to answer your question as succinctly as I can.

“Printing money” is a term used today that nobody really knows what it means. Historically it meant the government physically printed little pieces of paper which were then spent into circulation by buying goods and services the government needed. For example, in the Revolutionary War, the government printed continentals to pay the troops. Allegedly, British counterfieting rendered the currency eventually worthless. Again, when New York Bankers refused Abraham Lincoln additional financing during the Civil War, Lincoln then decided simply to print “greenbacks” to pay the troops. It worked. Merchants accepted greenbacks because Lincoln decreed that greenbacks would be accepted by the government for the payment of taxes. “Greenbacks” remained in circulation for decades and largely contributed to massive subsequent economic growth.

Today, 99 percent of all money in circulation isn’t currency at all, but mere electronic blips or signals recorded on the computerized ledgers of the banking system. Obviously actual printing of money doesn’t really happen anymore in any meaningful way. However, “money creation” is probably a more appropriate term. Money is created when a bank makes a loan. Presto. That’s it. I already know that you’re going to ask Read more…

Banks, Economics, Financial Crises, Inflation/Deflation, Politics Banks, collapse, Currencies, debt, deflation, Economics, economy, fiscal policy, history, inflation, monetary policy, Politics, taxes, The Fed, US treasury, war

Harsh lessons we may need to learn again
By Joseph E. Stiglitz (China Daily)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2009-12/31/content_9249981.htm

Joseph Stiglitz recounts five “harsh lessons” from 2009:

1. Markets are not self-correcting.
2. Recent Markets failed because too-big-to-fail financial institutions had perverse incentives.
3. Keynesian policies do work.
4. There is more to monetary policy than just fighting inflation.
5. Not all innovation leads to a more efficient and productive economy – let alone a better society.

The best that can be said for 2009 is that it could have been worse, that we pulled back from the precipice on which we seemed to be perched in late 2008, and that 2010 will almost surely be better for most countries around the world. The world has also learned some valuable lessons, though at great cost both to current and future prosperity – costs that were unnecessarily high given that we should already have learned them.

The first lesson is that markets are not self-correcting. Indeed, without adequate regulation, they are prone to excess. In 2009, we again saw why Adam Smith’s invisible hand often appeared invisible: it is not there. The bankers’ pursuit of self-interest (greed) did not lead to the well-being of society; it did not even serve their shareholders and bondholders well. It certainly did not serve homeowners who are losing their homes, workers who have lost their jobs, retirees who have seen their retirement funds vanish, or taxpayers who paid hundreds of billions of dollars to bail out the banks.

Under the threat of a collapse of the entire system, the safety net – intended to help unfortunate individuals meet the exigencies of life – was generously extended to commercial banks, then to investment banks, insurance firms, auto companies, even car-loan companies. Never has so much money been transferred from so many to so few.
Read more…

Banks, Economics, Financial Crises, Inflation/Deflation, Markets, Politics Banks, collapse, deflation, Economics, economy, fiscal policy, history, inflation, monetary policy, Politics, taxes, The Fed, US treasury

To My Clients:

Our accounts are up 20.41 % Year-To-Date.
The Dow Jones Average is up 10.66 % Year-To-Date.

Although the stock and bond markets have been quite buoyant over the last several months, it is still quite premature to declare the longest postwar recession, over. There are still considerable risks to the economy. The massive fiscal stimulus together with the central bank’s printing of money is beginning to unnerve central banks around the world that hold huge portfolios of dollars. Consequently, the dollar, which is the world’s reserve currency for trading commodities such as oil, is in decline. This means that it will become more difficult for the government to borrow massive amounts of money from foreign sources, and imports, such as oil, will rise in price. Interest rates will also rise as necessary to attract the needed capital. Likewise, gold has been rising in price and is reaching all time highs. Read more…

Asset Allocation, Bonds, Currencies, Economics, Financial Crises, Gold, Inflation/Deflation, Markets, Stocks Asset Allocation, Banks, Bonds, Currencies, debt, economy, exchange rates, fiscal policy, Gold, inflation, monetary policy, performance, stock market, stock picks, strategy, The Fed

This is a transcript of Prof. Joseph Peden’s 50-minute lecture “Inflation and the Fall of the Roman Empire” given at the Mises Institute Seminar on Money and Government in Houston, Texas on October 27, 1984. The original audio recording is available courtesy of the Mises Institute.

Two centuries ago, in 1776, there were two books published in England, both of which are read avidly today. One of them was Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations and the other was Edward Gibbon’s Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. Gibbon’s multi-volume work is the tale of a state that survived for twelve centuries in the west and for another thousand years in the east, at Constantinople.

Yet Gibbon in looking at this phenomenon commented that the wonder was not that the Roman Empire had fallen, but rather that it had lasted so long. And scholars since Gibbon have devoted great deal of energy to examining that problem: how was it that the Roman Empire lasted so long,   Read more…

Banks, Currencies, Economics, Financial Crises, Gold, Inflation/Deflation Banks, collapse, Currencies, debt, Economics, economy, exchange rates, fiscal policy, Gold, history, inflation, monetary policy, taxes, The Fed, US treasury, war

June 21, 2009
by Gary North

Back in 1973, gold standard advocate John Exter made a phrase famous in hard-money circles: “Pushing on a string.” Exter argued that prices of all assets except gold (he ignored silver) would someday collapse because of the pyramiding of debt. Banks would eventually cease to lend, out of fear of default. That would cause the default.

The FED would inflate the monetary base, he said, but this would not reverse the price decline. The commercial banks would not lend. The FED would therefore push on a string. Its attempt to inflate would fail.

Read more…

Banks, Economics, Financial Crises, Inflation/Deflation Banks, collapse, debt, deflation, Economics, economy, fiscal policy, Gold, inflation, monetary policy, strategy, The Fed, US treasury

How California Could Turn its IOUs into Dollars
By Ellen Brown
Global Research, July 22, 2009

California has over $17 billion on deposit in banks that have refused to honor its IOUs, forcing legislators to accept crippling budget cuts. These austerity measures are unnecessary. If the state were to deposit its money in its own state-owned bank, it could have enough credit to solve its budget crisis with funds to spare.

California could pull its deposits out of those depository banks refusing its IOUs and put them instead in its own state-owned bank, following the lead of North Dakota, which now has the only state-owned bank in the country. Set up in 1919 to escape Wall Street predators, the Bank of North Dakota has been generating low-interest credit for the state and its residents for nearly a century. North Dakota is one of only two states (along with Montana) currently able to meet their budgets.

Read more…

Banks, Economics, Financial Crises Banks, collapse, debt, fiscal policy, The Fed

To My Clients:

Our accounts are up  5.7 % Y-T-D.
The Dow Jones Average is down 3.75 % 

Very briefly, the administration is soon to engage in massive stimulus fiscal spending while the Federal Reserve continues its massive monetary stimulus activities. While these endeavors always take time to filter into the economy, the stock market and the bond market have recently been somewhat buoyant, not necessarily because an economic recovery is imminent, but possibly because of the monetary stimulus taking place. The U.S. Treasury is making enormous demands on the bond market with the huge amounts of debt it needs to sell to finance the fiscal spending and the Federal Reserve is accommodating the Treasury by purchasing large portions of the U.S. Debt.  Read more…

Economics, Financial Crises, Markets, Portfolio Management Asset Allocation, economy, fiscal policy, monetary policy, performance, Portfolio Management, stock market, Stocks, strategy, The Fed, US treasury

To My Clients:

Our accounts were up 1.01% during the first quarter of this year.  The major stock market indexes are all down between 3-13%.

The current recession, the longest and deepest in decades is the result of massive debt defaults and deleveraging. Banks are now undercapitalized and are preserving capital by tightening lending standards (if they lend at all) resulting in a vicious cycle of a shrinking economy making money become even more scarce. Read more…

Asset Allocation, Banks, Bonds, Economics, Financial Crises, Gold, Markets, Portfolio Management Banks, Bonds, collapse, debt, economy, fiscal policy, Gold, monetary policy, performance, Portfolio Management, stock market, strategy, The Fed

The Treasury’s new website, financialstability.gov is actually not a bad website for getting some actual information about the administration’s efforts to address the financial crises. It gives us some idea, state by state, about where the money is going and where it went. For example, if you click on Utah, you will find that we got an ample share with most of it going to Zions Bank. And going to the transactions page, we find out that our very own local Zions Bank was, after the 9 largest banks, third in line for the next tier of payouts getting $1.4 BILLION. But even that kind of money still didn’t stop its stock price from plummeting from over $32 bucks a share on the day of the award to less than $7 bucks a share within a few weeks.

Hopefully the website won’t devolve into a propaganda tool, but will get better with more and better content.

Very Best Regards,

Joe

Banks, Economics, Financial Crises Banks, collapse, economy, fiscal policy, US treasury

I’ve written about Simon Johnson and the banking oligarchs before here and here. The Atlantic Monthly just published his most recent writings on the banking crisis. He is scathing in his assessement of our finanancial institutions (the oligarchs), almost as scathing of our governmental response, and lays out precisely what we must do to restore our economy, with which I am obviously in agreement since I am posting a link to the article here for your reading enjoyment. It’s lengthy so read it when you have some time.

Simon Johnson happens to be a pretty smart guy as he is a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is a professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. I follow his analysis closely in his own blog at baselinescenario.com.

Very Best Regards,

Joe

Banks, Economics Banks, collapse, debt, Economics, economy, fiscal policy, monetary policy, The Fed

There comes a time in every economic crisis or, more specifically, in every struggle to recover from a crisis, when someone steps up to the podium to promise the policies that – they say – will deliver you back to growth.  The person has political support, a strong track record, and every incentive to enter the history books.  But one nagging question remains.
Can this person, your new economic strategist, really break with the vested elites that got you into this much trouble?  Read more…

Economics collapse, debt, Economics, fiscal policy, strategy, The Fed

Does this rule still really apply?

Comparisons of economic conditions of today with those of the Great Depression abound, as well as comparisons with Japan’s “lost decades”, most implying that we are doomed to a repeat of those woeful eras. We know of course that the Fed did everything wrong in the 30′s and made things worse. Beginning in 1990, the Bank of Japan did everything right but it did no good. Why would this time around be any different? Read more…

Markets economy, fiscal policy, monetary policy, performance, Portfolio Management, stock market, stock picks, Stocks, strategy, The Fed

Let’s take a short detour to make sure we understand what inflation and deflation are. Milton Friedman, the father of the monetarist school of economics said that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. This is usually explained to the layman as “too much money chasing too few goods.”

Inflation is generally regarded Read more…

Economics collapse, debt, Economics, economy, fiscal policy, monetary policy, The Fed