Joe's Investo-Blog

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-30/gold-rallying-to-1-500-for-analysts-as-soros-s-bubble-inflates.html

Investors are accumulating enough bullion to fill Switzerland’s vaults twice over as gold’s most- accurate forecasters say the longest rally in at least nine decades has further to go no matter what the economy holds.

Analysts raised their 2011 forecasts more than for any other precious metal the past two months, predicting a 10th annual advance, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The most widely held option on gold futures traded in New York is for $1,500 an ounce by December, or 18 percent more than the record $1,266.50 reached June 21. Holdings through bullion-backed exchange-traded products are already at more than 2,075 metric tons, within 0.1 percent of the all-time high.

“Either a swift economic recovery or further dismal economic performance should bring new buyers into the market,” said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt who was the most accurate forecaster in the first quarter and expects the metal to rise as high as $1,400 next year. “A stronger economy would create more jewelry demand. If the economy stays weak or gets worse, then investors will be looking for a safe haven.” Read more…

Asset Allocation, Gold, Inflation/Deflation, Markets Asset Allocation, economy, Gold, growth, strategy

To My Clients:

Our accounts are up 5.3 % for the Quarter and up 11.2 % for the year 2010 to date.

Even though the broad stock market indexes are all down over 10 % this past quarter, we have been fortunate once again to show positive returns in our accounts with a targeted and conservative approach. Our tech stock, Sandisk, was up over 20%, our gold stocks were up 12% and our long-term treasury bonds were up 10%. The largest portions of our accounts remain invested in cash and short-term treasury securities. Short-term interest rates will remain at historic lows and we expect long-term interest rates to continue to decline even as federal debt surges.

The alleged “recovery” recently has been showing signs of weakness and debt problems continue across the globe leading to volatility and weakness in the stock markets. There is considerable discussion among economists and analysts as to whether we will enter into a double dip recession. We don’t necessarily agree and tend to follow a recent new term to describe the current outlook for the economy which is “muddle through”. Read more…

Asset Allocation, Banks, Bonds, Economics, Gold, Inflation/Deflation, Markets, Portfolio Management Asset Allocation, Bonds, debt, Economics, economy, fiscal policy, liquidity trap, monetary policy, Portfolio Management, stock market, stock picks, Stocks, strategy, The Fed

To My Clients:

Our accounts are up 5.4% Y-T-D and up 25.1% for the last twelve months.

The markets continue to show buoyancy as the economy very slowly begins a recovery. To a degree, this is largely a result of the Fed’s ineffectual efforts of getting money in circulation. Using the lowest interest rates in generations, the tactic is still seeking evidence of success. The curse of our banking system that in order to create money in circulation, it is wholly dependent upon loan and debt creation to inject money into the economy. However, consumers having been severely burned, no longer want to be in debt and, banks likewise, don’t really want to lend, sometimes even to their best credits. Money in circulation cannot grow unless people borrow and banks lend. Given the recent rising markets, it appears that banks are largely pumping and loaning money into financial assets instead of into bricks and mortar businesses that create jobs. Full recovery will still take some time.

Having said all of that, the economy is Read more…

Asset Allocation, Banks, Economics, Financial Crises, Gold, Markets, Portfolio Management, Stocks Asset Allocation, Banks, collapse, debt, Economics, economy, monetary policy, performance, Portfolio Management, stock market, Stocks, strategy, The Fed

To My Clients:

Our accounts are up 24.1 % for the year 2009.

Our accounts, together with the stock and bond markets, have performed quite well this past year despite large holdings in each account of low yielding T-bills and Treasury bonds. It is still quite difficult to find reasons not to continue our successful defensive strategies of the past three years in which we’ve been quite fortunate to obtain positive returns in each year.

The credit crisis is far from over, and although there are indications that the recession is coming to an end, it also appears that it will be a far from robust recovery. The best that can be said of the economy is that it has stopped declining. Employment continues to lag and will continue to be a severe drag on any recovery. In spite of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to stimulate monetary growth, it is not happening, as banks remain fearful of lending and continue to leave their reserves on deposit at the Fed. What little stimulus we are seeing seems to be finding its way into the financial markets so far, with little to show in the real economy.

The dollar has been declining for most of this past year with only recent signs of a turnaround. This has contributed to our Read more…

Asset Allocation, Banks, Bonds, Currencies, Economics, Financial Crises, Gold, Inflation/Deflation, Markets, Portfolio Management Asset Allocation, Banks, Bonds, Currencies, debt, deflation, economy, exchange rates, Gold, inflation, monetary policy, performance, Portfolio Management, stock market, strategy, The Fed, trade

To My Clients:

Our accounts are up 20.41 % Year-To-Date.
The Dow Jones Average is up 10.66 % Year-To-Date.

Although the stock and bond markets have been quite buoyant over the last several months, it is still quite premature to declare the longest postwar recession, over. There are still considerable risks to the economy. The massive fiscal stimulus together with the central bank’s printing of money is beginning to unnerve central banks around the world that hold huge portfolios of dollars. Consequently, the dollar, which is the world’s reserve currency for trading commodities such as oil, is in decline. This means that it will become more difficult for the government to borrow massive amounts of money from foreign sources, and imports, such as oil, will rise in price. Interest rates will also rise as necessary to attract the needed capital. Likewise, gold has been rising in price and is reaching all time highs. Read more…

Asset Allocation, Bonds, Currencies, Economics, Financial Crises, Gold, Inflation/Deflation, Markets, Stocks Asset Allocation, Banks, Bonds, Currencies, debt, economy, exchange rates, fiscal policy, Gold, inflation, monetary policy, performance, stock market, stock picks, strategy, The Fed

This is a transcript of Prof. Joseph Peden’s 50-minute lecture “Inflation and the Fall of the Roman Empire” given at the Mises Institute Seminar on Money and Government in Houston, Texas on October 27, 1984. The original audio recording is available courtesy of the Mises Institute.

Two centuries ago, in 1776, there were two books published in England, both of which are read avidly today. One of them was Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations and the other was Edward Gibbon’s Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. Gibbon’s multi-volume work is the tale of a state that survived for twelve centuries in the west and for another thousand years in the east, at Constantinople.

Yet Gibbon in looking at this phenomenon commented that the wonder was not that the Roman Empire had fallen, but rather that it had lasted so long. And scholars since Gibbon have devoted great deal of energy to examining that problem: how was it that the Roman Empire lasted so long,   Read more…

Banks, Currencies, Economics, Financial Crises, Gold, Inflation/Deflation Banks, collapse, Currencies, debt, Economics, economy, exchange rates, fiscal policy, Gold, history, inflation, monetary policy, taxes, The Fed, US treasury, war

HOW LITTLE WE KNOW

by Harry Browne

August 22, 1984

You’ve probably had the experience of reading a newsletter’s (blog’s) explanation of what is about to happen in the world. The writer presents a sensible, logical, compelling argument that something is inevitable based on what has gone before and where we are now. His case is so plausible and rational that it’s obvious he must be right.

But then you pick up another newsletter (blog) and find another preview of the inevitable -and it’s exactly opposite to the forecast in the first newsletter. And the second writer’s arguments are just as logical, sensible, plausible, and rational as the first writer’s.

Which one are you supposed to believe? The question could be critical. Each writer might be urging you to invest all your capital in line with his forecast. To choose wrongly could be disastrous.

So how do you decide which one of them is right?   Read more…

Asset Allocation, Economics, Gold, Humor, Markets, Portfolio Management, Stocks Asset Allocation, deflation, Economics, economy, fraud, Gold, Humor, inflation, performance, Portfolio Management, stock brokers, stock market, stock picks, Stocks, strategy

With the current administration’s economic policies moving solidly ahead, everyone’s a Keynsian now. Right? It was John Maynard Keynes who remarked that the gold standard is a barbarous relic. Well maybe the “gold standard” is, but central banks around the globe clearly think gold itself may be somthing of high value (Europeans excepted).

Much of the region’s Central Bank’s gold that has so far been held in London may soon return to Dubai.

The new vaults of DMCC will be a home to the gold allocated to the Dubai Gold Securities (DGS) Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). The vault may also become a natural choice for storage of gold reserves by central banks in the regional market, analysts said. Read more…

Asset Allocation, Banks, Currencies, Gold Asset Allocation, Banks, Currencies, Gold, strategy

To My Clients:

Our accounts were up 1.01% during the first quarter of this year.  The major stock market indexes are all down between 3-13%.

The current recession, the longest and deepest in decades is the result of massive debt defaults and deleveraging. Banks are now undercapitalized and are preserving capital by tightening lending standards (if they lend at all) resulting in a vicious cycle of a shrinking economy making money become even more scarce. Read more…

Asset Allocation, Banks, Bonds, Economics, Financial Crises, Gold, Markets, Portfolio Management Banks, Bonds, collapse, debt, economy, fiscal policy, Gold, monetary policy, performance, Portfolio Management, stock market, strategy, The Fed

To My Clients:

This past year we continued the full defensive strategy we adopted in late 2007. It has certainly performed well as the stock markets literally collapsed. In all candor, the positive performance in your account is the most gratifying performance of my entire 26 year career. While we continue to stay away from stocks in general, in late November we began Read more…

Economics, Gold, Markets, Portfolio Management Bonds, collapse, Economics, economy, fiscal policy, Gold, monetary policy, performance, Portfolio Management, stock market, strategy, The Fed

Yep. There’s yet another cardinal rule that tells you when to get into the market and when to get out (more or less). It has never failed me and following it, helped me avoid entirely the catastrophic markets last year and turn in positive performance for 2008.  You’ve all heard it before but let’s review because it does work. Read more…

Bonds, Economics, Gold, Markets, Portfolio Management, Stocks Bonds, Economics, economy, fiscal policy, Gold, monetary policy, performance, Portfolio Management, stock market, Stocks, strategy, The Fed

I must confess that last years positive portfolio performance is the single most gratifying performance I’ve experienced in my entire 26 year career. I was fortunate to have been able to perceive a deepening credit crunch (thanks to our concerns about the excessive debt and leverage in the economy) and aggressively followed an ancient investment rule, to wit; Read more…

Economics, Gold, Markets, Portfolio Management, Stocks debt, Economics, performance, Portfolio Management, stock market, stock picks, strategy

Nouriel Roubini is arguably the single most sought after economist today as the world’s leading finanical gloom and doom soothsayer. In an article today he provides his “after the fact” analysis of the roots of the current crises:

Today’s global crisis was triggered by the collapse of the US housing bubble, but it was not caused by it. America’s credit excesses were in residential mortgages, commercial mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, and student loans. Read more…

Economics, Gold, Markets, Stocks collapse, debt, Economics, stock market