Joe's Investo-Blog

To My Clients:

Our accounts are up 5.4% Y-T-D and up 25.1% for the last twelve months.

The markets continue to show buoyancy as the economy very slowly begins a recovery. To a degree, this is largely a result of the Fed’s ineffectual efforts of getting money in circulation. Using the lowest interest rates in generations, the tactic is still seeking evidence of success. The curse of our banking system that in order to create money in circulation, it is wholly dependent upon loan and debt creation to inject money into the economy. However, consumers having been severely burned, no longer want to be in debt and, banks likewise, don’t really want to lend, sometimes even to their best credits. Money in circulation cannot grow unless people borrow and banks lend. Given the recent rising markets, it appears that banks are largely pumping and loaning money into financial assets instead of into bricks and mortar businesses that create jobs. Full recovery will still take some time.

Having said all of that, the economy is Read more…

Asset Allocation, Banks, Economics, Financial Crises, Gold, Markets, Portfolio Management, Stocks Asset Allocation, Banks, collapse, debt, Economics, economy, monetary policy, performance, Portfolio Management, stock market, Stocks, strategy, The Fed

By JAMES ALTUCHER

Last Updated: 4:51 AM, April 18, 2010
Posted: 1:21 AM, April 18, 2010

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/rally_believing_it_D49EqJdvdwnjU0aHSrGygJ

The data suggest that the economy is starting to surge upward. Here are 25 statistics and anecdotes that suggest that the strength in the economy is real:

1. Average hourly wagesare $18.90, up from $18.52 a year ago. (Before employers hire full-time, they get their workers to work overtime, resulting in higher pay).

2. Aggregate weekly hours worked is the highest it’s been since June 2009 — again, suggesting overtime. Only so much overtime can be worked before hiring begins.

3. Industrial production index up 9 months in a row after plummeting 13 percent from December 2007 to June 2009.

4. Retail sales up 10 percent year over year.

5. GDP last quarter showed 5.9 percent annual growth.

6. Initial unemployment claims have gone from a peak of 643,000 in April 2009 to 480,000 now.

7. The Greek debt crisis seems to be ending without major fallout in the form of other nations defaulting.
Read more…

Asset Allocation, Markets, Portfolio Management, Stocks Asset Allocation, performance, Portfolio Management, stock market, Stocks, strategy

To My Clients:

Our accounts are up 20.41 % Year-To-Date.
The Dow Jones Average is up 10.66 % Year-To-Date.

Although the stock and bond markets have been quite buoyant over the last several months, it is still quite premature to declare the longest postwar recession, over. There are still considerable risks to the economy. The massive fiscal stimulus together with the central bank’s printing of money is beginning to unnerve central banks around the world that hold huge portfolios of dollars. Consequently, the dollar, which is the world’s reserve currency for trading commodities such as oil, is in decline. This means that it will become more difficult for the government to borrow massive amounts of money from foreign sources, and imports, such as oil, will rise in price. Interest rates will also rise as necessary to attract the needed capital. Likewise, gold has been rising in price and is reaching all time highs. Read more…

Asset Allocation, Bonds, Currencies, Economics, Financial Crises, Gold, Inflation/Deflation, Markets, Stocks Asset Allocation, Banks, Bonds, Currencies, debt, economy, exchange rates, fiscal policy, Gold, inflation, monetary policy, performance, stock market, stock picks, strategy, The Fed

Humor, Portfolio Management, Stocks collapse, Humor, Portfolio Management, stock brokers, stock market, Stocks

HOW LITTLE WE KNOW

by Harry Browne

August 22, 1984

You’ve probably had the experience of reading a newsletter’s (blog’s) explanation of what is about to happen in the world. The writer presents a sensible, logical, compelling argument that something is inevitable based on what has gone before and where we are now. His case is so plausible and rational that it’s obvious he must be right.

But then you pick up another newsletter (blog) and find another preview of the inevitable -and it’s exactly opposite to the forecast in the first newsletter. And the second writer’s arguments are just as logical, sensible, plausible, and rational as the first writer’s.

Which one are you supposed to believe? The question could be critical. Each writer might be urging you to invest all your capital in line with his forecast. To choose wrongly could be disastrous.

So how do you decide which one of them is right?   Read more…

Asset Allocation, Economics, Gold, Humor, Markets, Portfolio Management, Stocks Asset Allocation, deflation, Economics, economy, fraud, Gold, Humor, inflation, performance, Portfolio Management, stock brokers, stock market, stock picks, Stocks, strategy

Humor, Markets, Portfolio Management, Stocks Humor, performance, Portfolio Management, stock brokers, stock market, stock picks, Stocks, strategy

by Jonathan Clements

Wall Streeters talk a great game. The real challenge, however, is figuring out what they are really saying.

Below are 33 phrases often heard on Wall Street and how you might interpret them. The list was compiled with help from investment advisers William Bernstein, Eleanor Blayney, Harold Evensky, Deena Katz, Ros Levin, Gerald Perritt and Larry Swedroe. I also got a hand from Journal colleagues Greg Ip and William Power.

But my biggest debts are to Kevin Berozott, an investment adviser in Camarillo, Calif., and John Rekenthaler, research director at Chicago’s Morningstar Inc., both of whom shipped me e-mails filled with hilarious examples.  Read more…

Humor, Markets, Portfolio Management, Stocks Humor, Portfolio Management, stock brokers, stock market, strategy

I’ve been out of the stock market entirely now for over a year having sold everything in October of ’07. I’m starting to get fuzzy warm feelings about some of the super blue chips that have been accumulating huge balances of cash on their balance sheets. In this situation, there’s no question that they will survive the recession, will have dry powder coming out of it, and will likely thrive and prosper afterwards. These stocks are Read more…

Portfolio Management, Stocks Portfolio Management, stock market, stock picks, Stocks

Yep. There’s yet another cardinal rule that tells you when to get into the market and when to get out (more or less). It has never failed me and following it, helped me avoid entirely the catastrophic markets last year and turn in positive performance for 2008.  You’ve all heard it before but let’s review because it does work. Read more…

Bonds, Economics, Gold, Markets, Portfolio Management, Stocks Bonds, Economics, economy, fiscal policy, Gold, monetary policy, performance, Portfolio Management, stock market, Stocks, strategy, The Fed

I must confess that last years positive portfolio performance is the single most gratifying performance I’ve experienced in my entire 26 year career. I was fortunate to have been able to perceive a deepening credit crunch (thanks to our concerns about the excessive debt and leverage in the economy) and aggressively followed an ancient investment rule, to wit; Read more…

Economics, Gold, Markets, Portfolio Management, Stocks debt, Economics, performance, Portfolio Management, stock market, stock picks, strategy

Nouriel Roubini is arguably the single most sought after economist today as the world’s leading finanical gloom and doom soothsayer. In an article today he provides his “after the fact” analysis of the roots of the current crises:

Today’s global crisis was triggered by the collapse of the US housing bubble, but it was not caused by it. America’s credit excesses were in residential mortgages, commercial mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, and student loans. Read more…

Economics, Gold, Markets, Stocks collapse, debt, Economics, stock market