Quarterly Update Summary

We’ve recently been cautiously optimistic about the economy which has performed quite well. There are presently a couple of developments on the monetary and fiscal fronts that cause us some concern. Few things affect the economy more than the availability of new money created by the Fed (monetary stimulus) or by Congressional deficit spending (fiscal stimulus).

On the monetary front, the Fed has recently been engaging in Continue reading

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Quarterly Outlook Summary

We’ve recently been cautiously optimistic about the economy which has performed quite well. There are presently a couple of developments on the monetary and fiscal fronts that cause us some concern. Few things affect the economy more than the availability of new money created by the Fed (monetary stimulus) or by Congressional deficit spending (fiscal stimulus).

On the monetary front, the Fed has recently been engaging in a policy of gradually Continue reading

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Quarterly Outlook Summary

Pessimism is growing about the future direction of the markets as is speculation that valuations have become too high. These sentiments are not uncommon in strong markets. Sometimes it’s called climbing a wall of worry. The common ingredients for a correction still do not seem to be coming together. Interest rates, although rising, remain near historic lows. The yield curve remains Continue reading

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2016 Year-end Summary

Last year the economy and the markets performed moderately well. The economy has now weathered two interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve. They see the economy growing moderately with low inflation and steady growth. Inflation is low and slowly rising although nowhere near the Fed’s target range and certainly not a risk.of a more rapid interest rate policy. We expect that they will continue to raise interest rates slowly in an effort to normalize interest rate policy, not necessarily in an effort to head off Continue reading

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Quarterly Outlook Summary

Our accounts have been performing very well this year largely due to two of our major holdings, Amazon and Oclaro. While these began as quite modest positions, they have grown sufficiently that they are both quite large in our standard portfolio. Consequently, as a caution, there may be some volatility in your account valuation month to month at least until we find an appropriate time to lighten the weight of each in our accounts. That time does not seem to be just yet.

The Presidential election seems to have everyone’s attention, especially at this time of an election year. In my experience and in my view, elections rarely if ever Continue reading

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Quarterly Outlook Summary

The economy remains sufficiently weak that the Federal Reserve has postponed any further interest rate increases until at least next year. One of the complicating factors was the recent vote in the U.K. to leave the European Trade Union. The vote to leave was expected to be close, but few thought it would succeed. The mechanics of exiting that will take place over the next several years and no one can realistically predict what the economic consequences will be. It is safe to say however, that the vote has introduced uncertainty and risk to the global economy which will affect Continue reading

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